Franklin, Tenn. — October 6, 2026

Many Americans who plan to buy a home have a specific mortgage rate in mind before they will act, and it sits well below where borrowing costs stand today, according to a consumer sentiment survey from property data firm Cotality.

U.S. respondents named a median of 4.6% as the rate that would persuade them to enter the market, Cotality said in a special report published Sept. 23. The report is based on a second-quarter survey of recent and prospective buyers in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia and New Zealand. Gen Z buyers in the U.S. set the highest threshold of any generation, at 4.9%. Freddie Mac's weekly survey put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.28% for the week ending Oct. 1.

The gap matters because the survey suggests more buyers are letting a rate, rather than a change in their lives, set their timing. Thirty percent of future buyers across the five markets said a specific interest rate would move them from browsing to applying, compared with 20% of recent buyers. Among recent buyers, 46% said life events such as a new baby or a job in another city drove the decision to purchase. Forty percent of Gen Z future buyers said they were waiting on a specific rate.

Selma Hepp, Cotality's chief economist, said in the report that U.S. rates are unlikely to fall to the levels buyers want for at least another three years, and she argued that waiting carries its own cost. "At first glance, renting at $2,000 per month looks cheaper than buying with a $300,000 mortgage," Hepp said in a statement. "But once you account for principal paydown and the federal tax benefit, ownership becomes roughly cost-neutral at a 6.6% mortgage rate and clearly favorable at 6.0%." That comparison is Cotality's illustration. A household's own math depends on its rent, tax situation and expected time in the home, as well as the full cost of ownership, including property taxes, insurance and upkeep.

Buyers are also signaling flexibility. Seventy-eight percent of Gen Z respondents said they would cut lifestyle spending to afford a home and 74% said they would accept a smaller one. Across all respondents, 65% said they would seek a smaller mortgage to improve affordability.

Listing conditions have moved in buyers' favor on price, if not on rates. Realtor.com reported that 20.8% of active listings carried a price reduction in September, the highest monthly share since October 2022. Active listings rose 5.4% from a year earlier to 1,161,615 but remained 9.1% below pre-pandemic norms, and the median list price was $419,250, down 1.4% from a year earlier.

For a household deciding whether to wait, the more useful comparison is usually the full monthly payment on a specific home at an actual quote, set against the cost of continuing to rent, rather than a target rate alone. Discount points, seller-paid closing-cost credits and adjustable-rate loans can each change that payment, and each carries its own tradeoff in upfront cost or future risk.

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