Franklin, Tenn., October 2, 2026

Mortgage markets on Friday opened with a bond rally after a softer-than-expected jobs report, then gave those gains back into the close. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said nonfarm payrolls rose by a net 29,000 in September, well below a Wall Street Journal consensus near 84,000, while prior months were revised lower by a combined 60,000. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1%. Dow Jones Newswires reported that the 10-year yield slipped toward 5.178% after the print before recovering as oil prices rebounded and European fiscal-spread concerns eased.

As of the 3 p.m. ET Tradeweb closing basis, the U.S. 10-year yield rose 0.043 percentage point to 5.276%, according to Dow Jones Newswires’ Data Talk. That left the benchmark up 0.096 percentage point on the week—its fifth consecutive weekly rise—and only 0.016 percentage point below its 52-week high of 5.292% hit Wednesday, September 30. CME-fed funds futures implied roughly an 82% chance of a Fed hold this month after the soft payrolls and recent milder inflation data, up from about 36% a week earlier, Dow Jones cited.

Mortgage News Dailys same-day top-tier 30-year fixed index finished at 7.57%, up about three basis points from Thursday’s latest levels, after lenders started slightly lower and then raised pricing as bond gains evaporated. Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, released Thursday for the week ending October 1, still stands at a 7.28% average for the 30-year fixed (up from 7.03% the prior week) and 6.60% for the 15-year. Those weekly and daily prints use different samples and windows and are not averaged here.

Analysis: Fridays soft headline payrolls cut October hike odds, but a late fade in Treasuries kept mortgage lock averages from following the morning’s relief. For originators, payment math remains near recent multi-year highs even when a single data print briefly looks friendly. That is a read on public survey prints, not any lender’s lock desk.

What remains unknown is whether next week’s calendar can reverse this week’s climb in the 10-year, or whether elevated term yields continue to set the floor under conventional and government note rates.

Sources

  • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation — September 2026 (released Oct. 2, 2026)
  • Dow Jones Newswires / Morningstar, “U.S. Bond Yields Ease as Job Creation Slows 3rd Update,” Oct. 2, 2026
  • Dow Jones Newswires / Morningstar Data Talk, Tradeweb FTSE U.S. Treasury Closing Prices (3 p.m. ET), Oct. 2, 2026
  • Mortgage News Daily, “Mortgage Rates End Higher Despite Promising Start,” Oct. 2, 2026
  • Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, as of Oct. 1, 2026 (released Oct. 1, 2026)