Franklin, Tenn., October 5, 2026

Mortgage rates edged higher again on Monday as Treasuries gave back early gains. CNBC reported the 10-year yield slipping to about 5.255% early in the day, extending Friday's relief after a soft September jobs report. That move did not hold. As of the 3 p.m. ET Tradeweb closing basis, the 10-year yield rose 0.034 percentage point to 5.310%, according to Dow Jones Newswires' Data Talk, a new 52-week high and the highest level since April 2, 2002. The yield has now risen in nine of the past 10 trading days.

The day's main scheduled data point offered little new direction. The Institute for Supply Management said its services index eased to 54.9 in September from 55.4 in August, a hair below the 55.0 consensus and the 27th straight month of expansion. The employment gauge returned to expansion at 50.1, while prices paid rose to 74.0, the highest since July 2022, with fuel costs cited most often by respondents.

Mortgage News Daily's top-tier 30-year fixed index finished at 7.61%, just 0.01 percentage point above last week's high of 7.60%. Matthew Graham wrote that bonds lost ground without an obvious new catalyst, pointing instead to standing pressures such as heavy Treasury and corporate bond issuance, inflation risk tied to the Iran war, resilient economic data and some anxiety ahead of this week's Treasury auctions. Freddie Mac's weekly survey, released Thursday for the week ending October 1, still stands at 7.28% for the 30-year fixed and 6.60% for the 15-year. Daily and weekly prints use different samples and windows and are not averaged here.

For borrowers, the takeaway is that Friday's softer jobs data has not translated into lower payments. CME FedWatch pricing cited by CNBC showed roughly an 82% chance the Fed holds rates steady at its meeting later this month, yet longer-term yields keep climbing on their own. That is a read on public survey data, not any lender's rate sheet.

The next test arrives quickly. Minutes from the Fed's September meeting are due Wednesday, and this week's Treasury auctions will show whether investors are ready to step in at these yields or want them higher still.

Sources

  • Dow Jones Newswires / Morningstar Data Talk, "10-Year Treasury Yield Rises to 5.310%," Oct. 5, 2026 (Tradeweb FTSE U.S. Treasury Closing Prices, 3 p.m. ET)
  • CNBC, "Treasury yields inch lower as investors pare back Fed rate hike bets," Oct. 5, 2026
  • Institute for Supply Management, September 2026 ISM Services PMI Report (released Oct. 5, 2026)
  • TheStreet Pro, "Services Keep Expanding, but Prices Climb to Highest Since 2022," Oct. 5, 2026
  • Mortgage News Daily, "Mortgage Rates Inch Up to Another Recent High," Oct. 5, 2026
  • Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, as of Oct. 1, 2026 (released Oct. 1, 2026)