Franklin, Tenn., October 6, 2026

Mortgage rates eased on Tuesday as Treasuries recovered part of Monday's selloff. As of the 3 p.m. ET Tradeweb closing basis, the 10-year Treasury yield fell 0.040 percentage point to 5.270%, according to Dow Jones Newswires' Data Talk, snapping a two-session run of higher yields and pulling back from Monday's 52-week high of 5.310%. RTTNews said bond prices gave back an early surge before turning higher again later, a rebound that may partly have reflected bargain hunting after yields hit multi-decade highs.

The Treasury sold $58 billion of three-year notes at a high yield of 4.932%, MarketWatch reported, the highest for that maturity since a May 2006 auction. Demand signals were mixed: the bid-to-cover ratio of 2.62 was below average, but the notes cleared slightly below the 4.934% when-issued yield, and indirect bidders took 57.6%.

The day's main data release pointed to firm domestic demand. The Commerce Department said the trade deficit widened 13.7% to $105.6 billion in August, above the $102 billion Dow Jones consensus cited by CNBC, as imports rose 4.3% to a record $420.8 billion. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told Axios she backed September's rate hike and that whether more increases are needed depends on whether tariff, energy and AI-related shocks fade or compound.

Mortgage News Daily's top-tier 30-year fixed index fell 0.05 percentage point to 7.56%, a move Matthew Graham noted rates have made only seven times since August 25. He called it somewhat encouraging that Monday's 7.61% high roughly matched the 7.60% peak from September 30, but wrote that it is too soon to start celebrating. Freddie Mac's weekly survey for the week ending October 1 still stands at 7.28% for the 30-year fixed and 6.60% for the 15-year. Daily and weekly prints use different samples and windows and are not averaged here.

For borrowers, one calmer session does not undo weeks of increases, and Mortgage News Daily's index remains near its highest levels since 2003. That is a read on public survey data, not any lender's rate sheet.

Attention now turns to Wednesday, when minutes from the Fed's September meeting are released and the Treasury reopens $39 billion of 10-year notes, followed by $22 billion of 30-year bonds on Thursday. CME FedWatch pricing cited by CNBC Tuesday morning showed about a 78% chance the Fed holds rates steady at its next meeting.

Sources

  • Dow Jones Newswires / Morningstar Data Talk, "10-Year Treasury Yield Falls to 5.270%," Oct. 6, 2026 (Tradeweb FTSE U.S. Treasury Closing Prices, 3 p.m. ET)
  • RTTNews, "Treasuries Regain Ground Following Recent Downward Trend," Oct. 6, 2026
  • MarketWatch, "U.S. Pays Highest Borrowing Costs for Three-Year Notes Since 2006," Oct. 6, 2026
  • U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, "U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, August 2026" (released Oct. 6, 2026)
  • CNBC, "Trade deficit hits $105.6 billion, widest since just before Trump tariffs enacted last year," Oct. 6, 2026
  • Axios, "Federal Reserve watches AI, tariffs, energy for inflation risk," Oct. 6, 2026
  • Mortgage News Daily, "Mortgage Rates Near 1-Week Lows," Oct. 6, 2026
  • Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, as of Oct. 1, 2026 (released Oct. 1, 2026)
  • U.S. Treasury, Offering Announcements for 10-Year Note (Oct. 7, 2026 auction) and 30-Year Bond (Oct. 8, 2026 auction), Oct. 1, 2026
  • CNBC, "Treasury yields are broadly flat as investors anticipate FOMC minutes," Oct. 6, 2026