Nashville Rental Vacancy Rate Holds Near 10% in Census Survey Data
The Nashville rental vacancy rate stood at 9.6% in the second quarter, Census survey data show. What the quarterly figures say and how wide the error runs.
Franklin, Tenn. — October 26, 2026 — The Nashville rental vacancy rate was 9.6% in the second quarter of 2026, according to the Census Bureau's Housing Vacancy Survey, compared with a national rate of 7.3%. The metro figure has stayed in a range of roughly 9% to 13% for six straight quarters, though the survey's wide margins of error mean the gap with the nation is less certain than the headline numbers suggest.
Nashville rental vacancy rate by quarter
The rental vacancy rate measures the share of the rental housing inventory that is vacant and available for rent. The Census Bureau publishes it quarterly for the 75 largest metropolitan areas, including Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, and for each state.
| Quarter | Nashville metro | Margin of error (+/-) | Tennessee | Margin of error (+/-) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | 8.9% | 4.6 | 8.2% | 2.3 |
| Q2 2025 | 11.4% | 5.0 | 9.4% | 2.4 |
| Q3 2025 | 12.6% | 5.2 | 7.9% | 2.2 |
| Q4 2025 | 11.4% | 5.9 | 9.4% | 2.6 |
| Q1 2026 | 9.9% | 4.8 | 7.8% | 2.1 |
| Q2 2026 | 9.6% | 4.0 | 7.8% | 2.0 |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey/Housing Vacancy Survey, Tables 1, 4 and 4b. Margins of error are in percentage points at 90% confidence. Fourth-quarter 2025 estimates are based on November and December only.
Nationally, the rental vacancy rate was 7.3% in both the first and second quarters of 2026, and the Census Bureau said the second-quarter figure was not statistically different from the 7.0% rate a year earlier. Statewide, Tennessee's rate was 7.8% in each of the first two quarters of 2026. The Census Bureau's release calendar schedules third-quarter 2026 figures for Oct. 28.
How much weight the quarterly figures can bear
The Housing Vacancy Survey is a sample survey, and metro-level estimates carry large margins of error. Nashville's second-quarter 2026 margin was plus or minus 4.0 percentage points, which means the 90% confidence range ran from about 5.6% to 13.6%. Quarter-to-quarter moves of a point or two in the metro series are generally within that noise.
Two other cautions apply. A lapse in federal funding meant the survey did not collect data in October 2025, so fourth-quarter 2025 figures rest on two months of data. And the Census Bureau has been phasing in a new survey sample since April 2025, a process it said would be completed by July 2026.
What the series does show is persistence: every quarterly Nashville estimate since the second quarter of 2025 has been above 9%. In 2022, by comparison, the metro's quarterly estimates ranged from 4.4% to 8.8%, according to the same Census table. A single quarter is weak evidence; a run of similar readings is a more useful signal than any one estimate.
What the vacancy figures mean for Tennessee rental investors
For an investor, vacancy is one of the inputs that turns a rent estimate into an expected income figure. A metro-wide survey rate is a broad check, not a forecast for a particular property, neighborhood or unit type, and local listings and leasing data give a closer read. Iron Hill Brief's Davidson County housing market report covers the county's sales side.
Investors financing a rental on its income can review Iron Hill Brief's guide to the DSCR loan in Tennessee, which explains how a property's rent is weighed against its debt service. Overview details on DSCR loans cover the documentation involved; requirements vary by lender.
Working on a Tennessee rental? Talk with an Iron Hill loan advisor: text Ashley at 615-949-4780 or book a time here. Iron Hill Mortgage | NMLS #1946451.
Business-purpose loans for investment property only. Not for personal, family or household use. Subject to approval. Equal Housing Opportunity.
Sources
- U.S. Census Bureau, Housing Vacancies and Homeownership, Quarterly Vacancy and Homeownership Rates by State and MSA: Table 1 (rental vacancy rates by state, 2005 to 2026), Table 4 (rental vacancy rates for the 75 largest MSAs, 2026) and Table 4b (2015 to 2025) (accessed Oct. 23, 2026): https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/data/rates.html
- U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Residential Vacancies and Homeownership, Second Quarter 2026 (current release): https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/current/index.html
- U.S. Census Bureau, Housing Vacancies and Homeownership, Annual Statistics 2025, source and accuracy notes (October 2025 data collection lapse; new sample phase-in): https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/files/annual25/ann25src.pdf