Nashville Buyer's Market Ranks Second Among Big Metros as Sellers Outnumber Buyers by 152%

Franklin, Tenn. — October 16, 2026

The Nashville buyer's market ranked second among the 50 most populous U.S. metros in September, according to a Redfin analysis released Oct. 14. Home shoppers in the area had more listings to choose from relative to the number of competing buyers than in almost any other large metro.

Nashville buyer's market: 18,068 sellers, 7,161 buyers

Redfin estimated that there were 18,068 home sellers and 7,161 buyers in the Nashville metro in September, meaning sellers outnumbered buyers by 152.3%. Only Miami, at 158.9%, had a wider gap among the 50 most populous metros, and Houston ranked third at 134.6%. It was the second consecutive month in which those three metros led the list. Redfin classifies any market with more than 10% more sellers than buyers as a buyer's market, and by that measure 41 of the 50 metros it tracks were buyer's markets in September, the most in its records. All of the 13 metros where sellers outnumbered buyers by more than two to one were in the Sun Belt.

National seller surplus sets a record

Nationally, Redfin estimated there were 62.6% more sellers than buyers, up from 56.9% in August and the largest gap in records dating to 2013. It was the fourth consecutive month to set a record. The estimated number of buyers fell 2.4% from August to 928,892, the lowest in Redfin's records and the fifth straight monthly decline, while the number of sellers rose 1.2% to 1,510,784, the most since March 2020. Redfin counts sellers as active MLS listings and estimates buyers from pending sales, active listings and its own data on the time from a buyer's first tour to closing.

Redfin attributed the widening gap mainly to buyers pulling back while sellers kept listing. "This is a buyer's market born out of caution, not strength," said Asad Khan, a senior economist at Redfin. "For house hunters who have the budget and job security to purchase a home in today's market, that creates a unique opportunity: They can be picky, negotiate and even walk away if the deal doesn't make sense financially or they find something they like better." Redfin said the large Sun Belt surpluses reflect in part robust homebuilding that has continued even as demand cooled, adding to the pool of homes for sale.

Prices soften, payments stay high

Redfin's weekly data released Oct. 15 show that pressure beginning to reach prices. In the four weeks ended Oct. 11, the national median asking price fell 0.3% from a year earlier, its first annual decline since March, and the median sale price rose just 0.5% to $391,116, the slowest growth since March. The share of listings with a price cut rose to 22% from 20.9% a year earlier, and pending sales were 12.7% lower than a year ago. The leverage has not translated into lower monthly costs, however: Redfin put the median monthly mortgage payment at $2,777, up 8.8% from a year earlier and near a record, because higher borrowing costs have more than offset flat prices.

What Middle Tennessee MLS data show

Local MLS data tell a similar story through a different lens. Across the ten-county Middle Tennessee region, active inventory rose 8% in September from a year earlier to 14,249 homes while new contracts fell 3%, and the average listing took 63 days to go under contract, according to Realtracs figures compiled by Nashville broker Grant Hammond of Compass. Regional supply reached 5.41 months, and Davidson County's 6.46 months put it past the six-month mark that Hammond treats as favoring buyers. Redfin's metro definition and buyer estimates differ from MLS supply measures, so the two figures are not directly comparable, but both point to a market in which sellers face more competition for fewer active buyers than at any time in recent years.

For buyers who can qualify, the combination means more room to negotiate on price, repairs and closing costs than Middle Tennessee has offered in years, particularly on homes that have lingered. For sellers, Hammond advised pricing to recent closed sales rather than to competing active listings, which he described as the homes that have not sold.

Sources

• Redfin, "Home Sellers Now Outnumber Buyers By 63%, the Biggest Gap Since the Post-Recession Housing Crash" (Oct. 14, 2026): https://www.redfin.com/news/buyers-vs-sellers-september-2026/
• Redfin, "Asking Prices Fall For the First Time Since March" (Oct. 15, 2026): https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-asking-prices-decline-october/
• Grant Hammond, "Middle Tennessee Real Estate Market Update September 2026" (Realtracs MLS, report date Oct. 4, 2026; updated Oct. 5, 2026): https://www.granthammond.com/market-analysis/nashville-housing-market/middle-tennessee-real-estate-market-update-september-2026/