Pending Home Sales Hit a Record Low, but Nashville Posts the Smallest Drop Among Big Metros
Pending home sales fell 7.3% in September to a record low, but the Nashville metro posted the smallest annual decline among the 50 largest U.S. markets.
Franklin, Tenn. — October 21, 2026
Pending home sales, the count of signed contracts on existing homes, fell 7.3% in September from August and 11.3% from a year earlier, the National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday, with the Nashville metro area posting the smallest annual decline among the country's 50 largest markets.
The drop left NAR's Pending Home Sales Index at 66.0, the lowest level since the series began in 2001, according to Reuters, which reported that economists it polled had expected a decline of 0.5%. An index reading of 100 equals the average level of contract activity in 2001, NAR said.
Pending home sales fall in every region
Contract signings fell month over month in all four regions. The West had the largest decline, down 9.2% from August and 15.0% from a year earlier. The South fell 8.2% for the month and 12.0% for the year, followed by the Midwest, down 6.5% and 8.7%, and the Northeast, down 4.2% and 9.4%.
"Market conditions weakened in September due to fast-rising mortgage rates," said Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist. "Although job growth and income gains can support home purchases, housing affordability is more affected by changes in mortgage rates."
Freddie Mac's weekly survey put the 30-year fixed rate at its highest level in nearly three years in the week ended Oct. 15, Reuters reported. Yun said rates "could be topping out" because they have already risen much more than the Federal Reserve's short-term rate increases, but he called the outlook uncertain given rising energy prices and inflationary pressure.
Nashville pending home sales hold up best
Among the 50 largest metro areas, Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin posted the smallest year-over-year decline in pending sales, down 2.0%, according to Realtor.com Economics data cited by NAR. Memphis ranked ninth on the same list, down 6.3%.
| Metro area | Pending sales, year over year (Sept. 2026) |
|---|---|
| Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, TN | -2.0% |
| Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT | -2.1% |
| San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA | -3.5% |
| Memphis, TN-MS-AR | -6.3% |
| United States | -11.3% |
Source: NAR; metro figures from Realtor.com Economics. Selected metros from NAR's list of the 10 smallest annual declines among the 50 largest metros.
The national figure follows earlier signs of a slowing fall market. Iron Hill Brief reported Oct. 12 that pending home sales sank to a near 12-year low in Redfin's September count, and closer to home, the Davidson County housing market moved past six months of supply in September.
What the pending home sales drop means for buyers
Pending sales are an early read on closings. NAR said a pending sale usually closes within one or two months of signing, so September's contract decline points to weaker closed sales in the coming months. Completed existing-home sales rose 1.5% in September, NAR reported, though August and September posted the year's lowest sales levels.
For buyers, fewer competing contracts can mean more room to negotiate on price and terms. NAR noted that growing inventory and more sellers cutting prices are giving buyers more opportunities even as borrowing costs weigh on demand. Yun said steady prices reflect a limited number of distressed properties, and that "buyers and sellers may simply be holding back until mortgage rates move favorably." Buyers weighing a purchase can test what fits their budget with the Iron Hill Mortgage affordability calculator.
Sources
- National Association of Realtors, "Pending Home Sales Decreased 7.3% in September," Oct. 20, 2026: https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/pending-home-sales-decreased-7-3-percent-in-september
- National Association of Realtors, Melissa Dittmann Tracey, "Fewer Buyers Go Under Contract as Mortgage Rates Remain High," Oct. 20, 2026: https://www.nar.realtor/news/real-estate-news/economy/fewer-buyers-go-under-contract-as-mortgage-rates-remain-high
- Reuters via Yahoo Finance, "US pending home sales tumble to record low in September," Oct. 20, 2026: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-pending-home-sales-tumble-140050518.html