Pending Home Sales Sink to Near 12-Year Low as a Record 14.5% of September Contracts Fall Through

Franklin, Tenn. — October 12, 2026

Pending home sales, a count of signed purchase contracts, fell in September to their lowest level since spring 2014, outside the pandemic shutdown of April 2020, according to a report released Monday by Redfin, and a growing share of the deals that were signed did not survive to closing.

Pending home sales fall in all 50 major metros

Pending home sales fell 4% from August on a seasonally adjusted basis, the largest monthly decline in more than three years, Redfin said. For the first time in three years, pending sales declined in all 50 of the most populous U.S. metro areas. The last time that happened was September 2023, which Redfin noted was also the last time mortgage rates stayed above 7% for a sustained period.

Contract cancellations hit 14.5%

Cancellations rose at the same time. Redfin said 14.5% of home purchase agreements that went under contract in September were canceled, the highest share since the start of the pandemic and, apart from March and April 2020, the highest on record.

Zillow's September market report, released Oct. 6, pointed in the same direction. Newly pending sales fell 8.5% from a year earlier and 11.2% from August, while closed sales of existing homes fell 2.5% from a year earlier, according to Zillow's preliminary estimate. Zillow said home values were up about 1% over the past year, but higher rates had pushed the typical mortgage payment 6.7% above year-earlier levels, assuming a 20% down payment and excluding taxes and insurance.

Rates above 7% weigh on buyers

The common factor is financing costs. Freddie Mac's weekly average for the 30-year fixed rate reached 7.28% at the end of September and 7.40% in the week ending Oct. 8, the highest since November 2023.

The Mortgage Bankers Association, presenting its forecast at its annual convention on Oct. 11, said prospective buyers have begun putting purchases on hold as affordability concerns return. "The buyers who are still in the market are increasingly turning to ARM loans or paying points to lower their rates for the life of the loan," said Joel Kan, the association's deputy chief economist, adding that the adjustable-rate share of applications averaged almost 10% over the past month. The MBA forecast purchase originations of $1.42 trillion in 2027, up 0.8% from this year.

Slower demand has started to show up in supply. Realtor.com reported that active listings in the week ending Oct. 3 were up 6.7% from a year earlier, the fastest pace since February, even as new listings fell 4.1%, a sign that inventory is building because fewer homes are selling rather than because more owners are listing.

How buyers can keep a contract on track

For buyers still shopping, the data cut two ways. More inventory and fewer competing offers can mean more leverage on price, repairs and seller concessions. At the same time, the rise in cancellations underscores the importance of the steps that most often derail a contract, including confirming financing early, understanding how a rate lock and its expiration date fit the closing timeline, and reviewing inspection and appraisal contingencies before signing.

Locally, the pattern is similar. Greater Nashville Realtors reported 2,045 pending sales in September across its nine-county region, down about 10% from a year earlier.

Sources

• Redfin, "U.S. Pending Home Sales Sink Near 12-Year Low," Oct. 12, 2026: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/us-pending-home-sales-sink-near-12-year-low-302905207.html
• Zillow, "Zillow's September Market Report shows an early winter in the housing market as newly pending sales fall 8.5%," Oct. 6, 2026: https://investors.zillowgroup.com/news-and-events/news/news-details/2026/Zillows-September-Market-Report-shows-an-early-winter-in-the-housing-market-as-newly-pending-sales-fall-8-5/default.aspx
• Mortgage Bankers Association, "MBA Forecast: Mortgage Originations to Decrease 5 percent in 2027," Oct. 11, 2026: https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2026/10/11/mba-forecast--mortgage-originations-to-decrease-5-percent-in-2027-as-mortgage-rates-remain-above-7-percent
• Realtor.com Economic Research, "Weekly Housing Trends (Week Ending Oct. 3, 2026)": https://www.realtor.com/research/eekly-housing-trends-view-data-week-october-3-2026/
• Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey, Oct. 8, 2026: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
• Kenneth Sells Nashville, citing Greater Nashville Realtors, Oct. 7, 2026: https://kennethsellsnashville.com/available-inventory-remains-strong-challenging-september-2026-production-for-greater-nashville