Friday, October 16, 2026: Daily Mortgage Market Update — Rates Edge Higher as Oil Surge Stalls Bond Rally

FRANKLIN, Tenn. — Mortgage rates ticked up Friday for the first time in more than a week, as a jump in oil prices and another hot inflation reading kept bonds from extending this week's rally even while technology stocks sold off again.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said import prices rose 1.1% in September, above forecasts near 0.8%, and were up 8.1% from a year earlier, the largest 12-month gain since July 2022. Fuel import prices climbed 4.8% for the month. Separately, the Federal Reserve reported that industrial production rose 0.7% in September, with capacity utilization moving up to 76.9%.

Energy did the heavier lifting. West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $101.41 a barrel, up 3.5%, and Brent finished at $109.86, its highest close since May, as Iran escalated attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and Ukraine vowed to keep striking Russian refineries. The Nasdaq fell 2.1% on renewed worries about AI spending, but Treasuries did not catch the same safe-haven bid they found on Thursday.

The 10-year Treasury yield finished near 5.09% on the Treasury Department's daily curve, about where it closed Thursday, after swinging between roughly 5.07% and 5.12% during the session. The 2-year yield slipped to about 4.74%, while the 30-year held near 5.43%.

Mortgage pricing gave back a small slice of recent gains. Mortgage News Daily's daily index put the average 30-year fixed at 7.37%, up 0.04% from Thursday, following a 0.27% decline since October 7. Freddie Mac's weekly survey, released Thursday, held the 30-year fixed at 7.40%. Mortgage News Daily's Matthew Graham noted that rates refused to follow tech stocks lower this time, a possible sign of resistance after the week's strong run.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said Thursday that he does not prejudge meetings, and CME FedWatch pricing cited by CNBC showed traders putting better than 80% odds on a hold at the Fed's next decision in two weeks. Next week's economic calendar is light, so oil and stock market swings may set the tone for rates heading toward the end of the month.

Sources

• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes, September 2026
• Federal Reserve — Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization (G.17), October 16, 2026
• U.S. Treasury — Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates
• Mortgage News Daily — Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher Today, But Sharply Lower This Week (Oct 16, 2026)
• Mortgage News Daily — Could Have Been Better. Could Have Been Worse (Oct 16, 2026)
• Mortgage News Daily — 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates, National Average
• CNBC — U.S. Treasury yields waver as traders wrap up volatile week
• CNBC — Nasdaq slides 2% Friday to post worst week since June
• NBC News — Tech stocks erase $1 trillion of wealth as oil surges to $110